My Oscar Predictions 2012/Analysis of Best Song Category

Last year I predicted more Oscar winners than anyone else at the Oscar viewing party. Prepare to be devastated once again, Muncie. Ladies, place your bets.

BEST PICTURE The Artist

BEST DIRECTOR Michel Hazanavicius

BEST ACTOR Jean Dujardin

BEST ACTRESS Viola Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Christopher Plummer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Octavia Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Midnight in Paris

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Descendants

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM A Separation

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Rango

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY The Tree of Life

BEST FILM EDITING The Artist

BEST ART DIRECTION Hugo

BEST COSTUME DESIGN Hugo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG Man or Muppet

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE The Artist

BEST SOUND MIXING Hugo

BEST SOUND EDITING Hugo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Rise of the Planet of the Apes

BEST MAKEUP The Iron Lady
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT The Shore

I am certain about the first 9 predictions. I made a lot of these guesses based on other critics' predictions; obviously this is how I guessed the shorts and best doc. I've seen most of the others or read tons of reviews about them.

The most interesting category this year, for me, is Best Song. I really don't know which one the Academy will go for. I love the fact that one-half of Flight of the Conchords could win an Oscar. Plus, it's a great song. The first time I listened to it, I went around singing it all day. (The Mr.: "What the hell are you singing?") It's sweetly ridiculous and I love how it skewers the usual grand, soaring vocals that the Oscars famously reward (e.g., "My Heart Will Go On", "Beauty and the Beast", "Can You Feel the Love Tonight").

On the other hand, "Real in Rio" has a lot of features that the Academy has awarded in the past. It has a World Music beat that takes off at a sprint, like "Jai Ho" and "Under the Sea". It also has rap, like previous winners "Lose Yourself" and "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp". I like the choir and the Brazilian beat. It's not bad.

I'm placing my bets on "Man or Muppet" because I think it is the better song. I would love to see a song that perfectly balances satire and sincerity win. This is the category I'm really excited about. 

A lot of people are bitching about there only being 2 nominated songs in this category. My response is: At least they are good songs. Here's a list of bad songs that have won: both winners by Randy Newman, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp", "Al otro lado del río", "I Need to Wake Up", "Falling Slowly" . . . At least both songs this year are good. I'd rather have two good songs than 5 crappy Billboard rejects.

*UPDATE: I got 17/23 predictions correct, including Best Song. I'm so awesome.